Bitcoin has seen a small 0.45% price decline over the past 24 hours of trading. The cryptocurrency king is currently trading hands around $6,457 after experiencing a well received 5.46% price hike over the past 7 trading days. Bitcoin is currently muted toward the upside until a break above $6,622.
What’s been going on?
Price action has stabilised relative to the steep decline experienced at the start of the trading month. Price action has been trapped within a narrow range as cryptocurrency traders wait for the SEC to make their ruling on the next proposed Bitcoin ETF.
When is the ETF decision?
The next ETF ruling is for the ProShares Bitcoin ETF and is expected to be decided by Thursday August 23rd. The last proposed ETF’s ruling, from the Winklevoss twins, was postponed until a later date, however, this upcoming decline cannot be delayed.
For more on this upcoming ETF, decision check out our latest news piece, here.
Where is Bitcoin currently ranked?
Bitcoin is still holding its position at the throne of the cryptocurrency industry in terms of overall market cap. It has a total market cap value of around $111 billion after suffering a 18% price drop over the past 90 trading days. The 64 month old coin is currently 67% from its ATH, however, it has increased its dominance amongst its competition as BTC takes accounts for a total of 53% of the market currently.
Let us continue to analyse price action over the short term for Bitcoin.
BTC/USD – SHORT TERM – DAILY CHART
A brief catch up
In our last analysis, catch up here, we had stated that if Bitcoin could break above the long term .786 Fibonacci Retracement (drawn in peach) priced at $6622 then we may see the bullish momentum follow through to make fresh monthly highs, however, we can see that price action has not managed to break above this highlighted resistance level.
So what actually happened?
Price action has traded in a wide range over the past trading week. The market has been trading in a range-bound between an upper boundary at $6622 (long term .786 Fib) and the lower boundary at $6243 (short term downside 1.414 Fib Extension).
Where can we go from here?
From the perspective of the daily time frame, the upside is still limited until the market can break above the highlighted resistance at $6622. If the market can break above this resistance then our previous bullish scenario will come into play.
A break above $6622 will see immediate resistance at the previous short term .618 Fibonacci Retracement level (drawn in red) priced at $6848. Further resistance will be expected at the psychological round number handle of $7000 followed by the 100 day moving average which is currently hovering around the $7200 handle.
What if the bears take control?
If the bears regain control and push the market below the lower boundary of the range at $6243, then we expect immediate support to be located at the short term .886 Fibonacci Retracement priced at $6129. Further support located below this level is expected at the strong psychological round number handle of $6000.
If the market can continue to make fresh yearly lows we expect further support to be located at the short term downside 1.618 Fibonacci Extension level priced at $5916. Followed by the long term sloping trend line highlighted in a previous analysis article.
What are the technical indicators saying?
The technical indicators are turning from negative to neutral as the RSI trades at the 50 handle once again. If the RSI can break above the 50 handle we can expect the bullish momentum to push price action higher.
Let us continue to analyse price action at a closer time frame for those who can’t take their eyes away from the charts!!
BTC/USD – SHORT TERM – HOURLY CHART
What’s been going on recently?
The market has not moved much since the bullish price run where Bitcoin started at a low of $5858 on August 14, 2018, and rose to a high of $6647 on August 15 2018, a total price increase of around 13%. It has been range-bound between the range identified in the section above ($6622 – $6243) as the market waits for the next move.
Where can we go from here?
From the bullish angle, all upside is muted until the upper boundary of the range at $6622 is broken. If the market can break above this level then the long term bullish targets outlined above will be in play.
Alternatively, from the bearish perspective, if the market slips below the support at $6252 then further support is expected at the short term .618 Fibonacci Retracement level priced at $6158. Further support can be expected at the .786 Fibonacci Retracement level priced at $6025.
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